The container shipping industry appears to be grappling with its own version of “long COVID.” According to new data from Danish consultancy Sea-Intelligence, the persistent lack of vessel reliability has established a new baseline for capacity absorption—now two to three times higher than pre-pandemic levels.
During the pandemic, low vessel reliability drove capacity absorption to unprecedented levels, resulting in skyrocketing freight rates. However, Sea-Intelligence’s analysis reveals that the post-pandemic market has not reverted to pre-pandemic norms.
Before the pandemic, vessel delays typically averaged three to four days. Today, that figure has shifted to a new standard of 4½ to 5½ days. Between 2011 and 2019, market performance hovered around 70-80% reliability. While the pandemic caused a significant disruption, the industry now seems to have settled into a new normal of 50-65% reliability.
Pre-pandemic, only 2.2% of global shipping capacity was absorbed due to vessel delays. That figure has now surged to between 4% and 6%, effectively doubling or tripling the impact. From 2023 to 2026, the average capacity absorption has been 5.3%.
Sea-Intelligence highlighted the implications of this shift in its latest weekly report: “The consequence is a shift to a new normality, where a pool of vessel capacity equal to the entire fleet of HMM is permanently unavailable due to vessel delays. From a carrier perspective, this is a blessing in disguise, as it helps curb the looming overcapacity problem.”
HMM, South Korea’s flagship carrier and the world’s eighth-largest, operates a fleet exceeding 1 million TEU slots.
Source: Splash247