The ongoing disruption in the Strait of Hormuz has significantly increased traffic through the Panama Canal, which is now operating close to its maximum capacity as U.S. energy exports to Asia surge.
According to BIMCO’s latest analysis, average daily transits through the canal have risen by 8% year-on-year in 2026, reaching 38 vessels per day, largely fueled by heightened tanker demand. Over the past five weeks, transits have surged even further, climbing 16% year-on-year as energy exports from the U.S. Gulf to the Pacific spiked.
“The escalation of conflict involving Iran has reduced transits through the Strait of Hormuz, tightening global energy supplies and driving up commodity prices,” said Filipe Gouveia, BIMCO’s shipping analysis manager. “This has led buyers in Asia and the Americas’ west coast to source more cargoes from the U.S. Gulf, increasing competition for Panama Canal slots, particularly among tanker operators.”
With the canal’s daily maximum capacity ranging between 36 and 40 transits, it is now operating near its limit. While many transits are reserved in advance, last-minute slots are auctioned daily. The recent surge in demand has driven up auction prices and extended waiting times, which now average 47 hours—a 50% increase compared to last year.
Container ships, LPG carriers, oil tankers, and bulkers account for approximately 77% of canal traffic. Liners typically secure slots well in advance due to fixed schedules, while bulk and tanker operators often bid closer to their sailing dates. Rising costs and delays have prompted some operators to consider alternative routes via the Cape of Good Hope or Cape Horn, despite the longer distances and higher fuel consumption.
BIMCO also cautioned that weather conditions could exacerbate challenges later this year. The potential return of the El Niño climate pattern between May and July threatens rainfall levels that sustain Gatun Lake, the canal’s primary water source. During the severe El Niño events of late 2023 and early 2024, daily transits were reduced to just 22 ships, and maximum draught restrictions were imposed.
The Panama Canal Authority has sought to downplay concerns over congestion. In comments to Splash, the authority emphasized that million-dollar auction prices are “unique exceptions, not the rule.” A spokesperson noted that average auction prices between October 2025 and February 2026 were around $130,000, though preliminary figures for March and April showed averages closer to $385,000 due to “temporary market dynamics caused by geopolitical developments.”
The authority also clarified that 85% of vessels transit using standard reservations or long-term slot allocations, with waiting periods primarily affecting ships without pre-booked slots. “It’s important to distinguish between vessels with and without reservations to avoid the impression of congestion,” the spokesperson added.
In a separate development, the Panama Canal Authority has appointed Ilya Espino de Marotta as the canal’s administrator for the 2026–2033 term, marking the first time a woman will lead the strategic waterway.