Middle East Trade Routes Undergo Rapid Transformation Amid Hormuz Crisis

As the Hormuz shipping crisis persists, governments and corporations across the Middle East and beyond are accelerating efforts to reshape global trade routes. The International Energy Agency (IEA) has highlighted the scale of the disruption, noting it has already surpassed the oil shocks of the 1970s.

A significant development occurred on Tuesday when AD Ports Group and Abu Dhabi petrochemicals leader Borouge announced a partnership to explore creating an alternative export hub on the UAE’s east coast. The plan centers on leveraging AD Ports’ Fujairah Terminals and eastern port facilities as a strategic anchor. Borouge, AD Ports’ largest exporter since 2001, aims to establish dedicated polyolefins infrastructure in Fujairah and collaborate with shipping companies to develop new routes that bypass the congested Hormuz Strait.

“We are building a more flexible and diversified network that enhances reliability, ensures continuity of supply, and reinforces our position as a trusted global supplier,” said Borouge CEO Hazeem Sultan Al Suwaidi.

Fujairah, located outside the Strait of Hormuz on the Gulf of Oman, has become the UAE’s most strategically vital port. However, it has not been immune to conflict, with drone attacks disrupting oil loadings since the war began in February. Despite these challenges, the UAE is pressing forward. Abu Dhabi Crown Prince Sheikh Khaled bin Mohamed bin Zayed recently announced the acceleration of the West-East Pipeline project, which will double Fujairah’s export capacity by 2027. ADNOC already operates the Abu Dhabi Crude Oil Pipeline, which transports 1.5 to 1.8 million barrels per day from Habshan to Fujairah.

Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline, stretching 1,200 km from Abqaiq to the Red Sea port of Yanbu, provides an additional 4.5 million barrels per day of export capacity. Aramco CEO Amin Nasser has described it as a “critical lifeline.” However, these pipelines collectively fall short of replacing the 20 million barrels per day that transited Hormuz before the conflict.

Iraq is also taking steps to diversify its export routes. Plans are underway to reopen the Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline to Turkey’s Mediterranean port of Ceyhan, initially targeting 170,000 barrels per day with an eventual goal of 250,000. Additionally, Baghdad is revisiting proposals for pipelines to Oman’s Duqm port, Jordan’s Aqaba port, and Egypt, though these projects have faced challenges related to cost, conflict, and political hurdles.

Meanwhile, Iran’s Goreh-Jask pipeline, which could theoretically bypass the strait it has blockaded, remains largely inactive. Although a test shipment was exported from Jask in late 2024, no further shipments have followed, and the IEA has deemed the terminal non-viable for crude exports.

More ambitious ideas, such as constructing a canal through the Hajar Mountains to Fujairah—akin to a Gulf version of the Suez or Panama Canals—have been floated. However, analysts warn of extreme engineering challenges and costs potentially reaching hundreds of billions of dollars.

The reconfiguration of trade routes extends beyond the Gulf. China, heavily reliant on Hormuz for energy imports, is ramping up investment in the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route, also known as the Middle Corridor. This route connects China to Europe via Kazakhstan and the Caspian Sea. Road transport now accounts for over 50% of China’s trade with Central Asia, up from less than 20% a few years ago. In 2025, trade between China and Kazakhstan reached a record $48.7 billion, an 11% year-on-year increase.

The Baku-Tbilisi-Kars railway, a critical component of the Middle Corridor, has undergone modernization, boosting its annual capacity from 1 million to 5 million tonnes as of early 2024, with long-term goals of up to 50 million tonnes by the mid-2030s.

Analysts describe these developments as a structural shift in the Middle East’s logistics landscape. The region is moving away from reliance on the Persian Gulf’s traditional but vulnerable infrastructure toward a more diversified trade network linking the Indian Ocean to the Mediterranean through multiple nodes.