A comprehensive new report from Morgan Stanley highlights how Asia’s energy security crisis is sparking an investment supercycle poised to reshape global shipping through the end of the decade. The report predicts a surge in tanker orders, expanded shipyard capacity, and sustained demand across coal, LNG, and crude carrier sectors.
The 150-page analysis identifies the Hormuz crisis and broader energy disruptions as catalysts for over $5 trillion in energy investments across Asia by 2030. Shipping and shipbuilding are positioned as key beneficiaries of what Morgan Stanley describes as a once-in-a-generation shift in global energy supply chains. As Asia diversifies energy imports away from the Middle East toward regions like the U.S., Latin America, Australia, and domestic producers, trade distances are expected to increase significantly, necessitating more vessels to transport the same volumes.
This expansion in tonne-miles is already driving tanker newbuilding activity to multi-year highs. As of April 2026, the global tanker orderbook exceeds 20% of the existing fleet, with deliveries scheduled over the next three to five years. However, the supply of compliant tankers remains constrained. Approximately 19% of crude tankers and 10% of product tankers are currently sanctioned, representing 16% of total tanker capacity. Including non-sanctioned but non-compliant vessels—referred to as the “shadow but not sanctioned” fleet—Clarksons estimates that 24% of tanker capacity operates outside mainstream markets. This structural removal of tonnage keeps supply tight for compliant operators as long as sanctions persist.
Fleet age further exacerbates the supply challenge. With 22% of tanker tonnage already 20 years or older and an average fleet age exceeding 14 years, Morgan Stanley anticipates a potential doubling of the tanker orderbook-to-fleet ratio by 2030. This would be driven by accelerating demolitions and new orders to accommodate longer trade routes. The bank draws parallels to the late 1960s and early 1970s, when the Suez Canal’s closure rerouted Middle Eastern oil around the Cape of Good Hope, triggering an unprecedented tanker boom.
The broader energy crisis reinforces Morgan Stanley’s outlook. Goldman Sachs has labeled the current supply disruption as the worst oil crisis in history, with major economies holding an average of just 40 days of crude oil in storage—some, like the UK, as low as 14 days. JPMorgan has warned of a “ticking time bomb” as physical oil scarcity spreads from Asia to Europe. If Persian Gulf flows remain near zero, supply rationing could become inevitable, further elevating tanker demand as operators seek longer alternative routes.
Coal shipping is another sector poised for growth. Morgan Stanley forecasts coal consumption for power to rise to 4 billion tonnes annually by 2030, marking its fastest growth this decade. This surge is driven by Asian governments prioritizing domestic coal reserves to meet the energy demands of AI data centers. With Asia holding nearly 60% of global coal reserves, the report suggests coal’s resurgence will slow LNG infrastructure growth while boosting demand for capesize and dry bulk carriers. At the Geneva Dry conference, experts echoed this sentiment, noting that the Hormuz crisis could add 55–65 million tonnes of incremental seaborne coal demand, equivalent to removing around 100 capesize ships from the spot market.
LNG shipping also features prominently in Morgan Stanley’s analysis. The bank notes that 250 LNG carriers are under construction globally, as Asia’s gas infrastructure boom connects suppliers to consumers. Analysts at Bernstein project global LNG demand to grow by 8.5% this year to 441 million tonnes, driven primarily by Asia, with Europe maintaining elevated imports to reduce reliance on Russian pipeline gas.
Asia’s shipbuilding industry is central to Morgan Stanley’s thesis. The bank predicts vessel undersupply could persist longer than expected as older ships are scrapped and demand rises for tonnage capable of serving longer-haul energy trades. The tanker orderbook-to-fleet ratio could potentially double by 2030 from its end-2025 levels.
Morgan Stanley also highlights the underestimated energy implications of AI. Thematic research head Stephen Byrd warns that rising compute demand will require massive investments in power generation, transmission, and fuel supply. The bank forecasts global electricity demand to grow by over 1 trillion kWh annually through 2030, with AI data centers accounting for nearly 20% of that increase.
Energy economists argue that “just-in-case” sourcing is replacing “just-in-time” efficiency, as governments prioritize energy security and diversification over shorter shipping routes. This shift underscores the structural changes reshaping global energy and shipping markets.
