The United Arab Emirates’ (UAE) decision to withdraw from OPEC was a strategic move three years in the making, driven by its belief that the world is approaching the “autumn of the hydrocarbon age.” A senior adviser to UAE President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan explained that the country aims to maximize oil revenues while it still can.
The UAE officially ended its nearly six-decade-long membership in the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) on May 1. While the immediate market impact is minimal due to Iran’s effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the UAE’s departure could significantly weaken OPEC’s control over global oil supplies once oil flows stabilize.
Anwar Gargash, the presidential adviser, highlighted that the UAE’s exit was primarily motivated by OPEC production quotas, which restricted the country’s output below its full capacity. “We see that we are close to the sort of autumn of the hydrocarbon age,” Gargash stated. “If you have the ability to produce, generate income, and reinvest that income, that’s what you should do.”
The UAE’s current production capacity stands at 4.85 million barrels per day (bpd), with plans to increase it to 5 million bpd by 2027. Prior to leaving OPEC and the broader OPEC+ alliance, which includes non-OPEC producers like Russia, the UAE’s production target was capped at approximately 3.5 million bpd.
Despite the exit, ADNOC CEO Sultan al-Jaber emphasized on Wednesday that the UAE remains committed to being a responsible and stabilizing force in global energy markets.
Once close allies, Saudi Arabia and the UAE have increasingly diverged in recent years, clashing over oil policy, regional geopolitics, and competition for foreign investment and talent. These tensions came to a head earlier this year when fighting erupted in Yemen between factions backed by the two nations.