U.S. container imports are under increasing strain from rising fuel prices and tariffs, even as the ongoing conflict involving Iran has yet to significantly disrupt cargo volumes at the nation’s major ports, according to the latest Global Port Tracker report from the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Hackett Associates.
The report identifies trade policy as the most immediate challenge to import demand. Retailers are grappling with a temporary 10% global tariff imposed last month by President Donald Trump under the Trade Act of 1974, alongside adjustments to Section 232 duties on metals and new tariffs targeting pharmaceutical products and ingredients.
While the Strait of Hormuz crisis has not directly slowed U.S. containerized imports, the NRF warns that the broader global supply chain remains vulnerable. Rising bunker fuel costs, equipment imbalances, vessel rerouting, and reduced consumer spending power due to higher gasoline prices are all contributing factors.
“Even though retailers don’t source much merchandise from the Middle East, the U.S. supply chain isn’t immune to the ripple effects of turmoil in the region,” said Jonathan Gold, NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy. He emphasized that disruptions anywhere in the global logistics network can lead to higher shipping costs and reduced consumer purchasing power.
Hackett Associates Founder Ben Hackett noted that the operational impact on U.S. container imports from the Iran situation has been limited, as relatively little U.S. cargo originates from the region. However, he cautioned that the crisis is driving up global fuel prices for container shipping and could lead to fuel shortages at some Asian ports if the situation persists.
“The U.S. is less affected operationally since there’s no fuel shortage at domestic ports, but fuel prices here are tied to international markets,” Hackett explained. “Higher fuel costs increase the expense of shipping containers for both imports and exports, ultimately contributing to inflation for consumers and businesses.”
In February, U.S. ports tracked by Global Port Tracker handled 1.95 million TEU (twenty-foot equivalent units), excluding the Port of New York and New Jersey, which had not yet reported data. This marked a 7.5% decline from January and a 4.2% drop compared to February 2025. February is traditionally the slowest month due to Lunar New Year-related factory shutdowns in Asia.
For March, the report projects import volumes of 1.97 million TEU, an 8.3% year-over-year decline. April is forecast at 2.08 million TEU, down 5.6%, followed by 2.09 million TEU in May, up 7.3%, and 2.1 million TEU in June, up 6.9%. July is expected to see 2.2 million TEU, down 8%, with August forecast at 2.18 million TEU, down 6%.
If these projections hold, first-half 2026 import volumes would total 12.3 million TEU, a 1.8% decrease from the 12.53 million TEU recorded during the same period in 2025. The report attributes the anticipated gains in May and June to a comparison effect, as imports during those months in 2025 were sharply reduced following the announcement of “Liberation Day” tariffs.
Total U.S. container imports for 2025 reached 25.4 million TEU, slightly below the 25.5 million TEU recorded in 2024.
For retailers, the key takeaway is that while Iran-related disruptions have not yet directly impacted U.S. import flows, a prolonged energy shock could eventually drive up freight costs and, in turn, consumer prices.
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