Optimists lead global trade, and the data shows that the strategies they have built and deployed are working.
Since 2000, the industry has absorbed more than a dozen major disruptions. Yet global trade hasn't just kept moving. It has grown exponentially. The latest Descartes data shows that U.S. container imports reached 2.60 million TEUs in August, the third-highest monthly total on record.
Whatever the disruption, trade finds the path of least resistance. That ability comes from two sources: lessons learned from past disruptions, and intelligence drawn from enormous volumes of data.
Data alone isn't enough, though. Mountains of information can turn into noise and slow decisions down, especially on desks that are already overloaded. That is why data and intelligence are not the same thing. Agentic tools and analytics close the gap. They turn "beyond human" volumes of data into clear intelligence that teams can act on.
Jackson Wood, vice president of trade regulations at Descartes, which recently launched the Descartes Datamyne™ AI Agent, said this mix of data analysis and hard-won experience has prepared U.S. importers and exporters for whatever comes next. The muscle they built navigating disruptions like COVID now works alongside sharper intelligence.
According to Wood, one of the biggest shifts is who owns the problem.
"It's a whole-of-organization approach today," said Wood. "Historically, if there were supply chain disruptions, it was considered to be a supply chain problem, or procurement's problem; if it was on the regulatory side, it was a compliance problem, and risk would figure it out. Today it's not niche. It's a team."
The scale and impact of recent volatility have pushed organizations to rethink how they solve problems.
"Companies have had to adjust their commercial expectations, service abilities, and how they partner with suppliers and distributors," said Wood. "It has become a true team effort within organizations of all sizes. Everyone has each other's back."
For freight forwarders, this shift reaches beyond their own walls. Strong, trusted relationships with suppliers, distributors, and partners abroad have become a core part of how the industry absorbs shocks.
Descartes' analysis of the Liberation Day tariffs shows that trade kept moving even as tariffs reshaped where goods came from.
In the year after Liberation Day:
Supply chains adapted quickly. The shift to new sourcing markets did not fully offset the overall decline, but it shows how fast trade can reroute when conditions change.
Wood described the economic impact of the tariffs as disruptive but not catastrophic, despite early comparisons to COVID-19.
Wood pointed to one factor that has received far less attention than it deserves.
"An underappreciated mitigating factor here is the IEEPA refunds," said Wood. "A better part of $100 billion over the last several months has been returned to U.S. importers. You got a very small number of those companies who have said they were going to pass these refunds back to consumers. Most of them viewed the refunds as retroactively helping them with the margin erosion they saw because of these tariffs and kept the money for the next big disruption."
That reserve is now being put to work. Importers face a fresh set of challenges, including:
"Carriers have their work cut out for them," said Wood. "As a service provider, workarounds that they had developed to mitigate the risk go back to the lessons learned and the muscles they built. For importers in the U.S. in particular, this is just another thing that they have to deal with, and they will. If you look at corporate earnings and the growth of even traditionally very sensitive retail, the economy is incredibly resilient."
In my Substack, I have highlighted how the world's best operators, manufacturers, and retailers keep contingency plans ready for every kind of scenario. They understand that options are the key to resilience. Those options depend on smart decisions about sourcing, manufacturing, negotiations, and moving goods efficiently at the best price.
Retailers have already acted on that thinking.
"Retailers already placed their bets," said Brian Kobza, chief commercial officer at IMC Logistics. "They imported early, and now we want to really make sure we're relatively ready for what this fourth quarter is going to look like."
The work of building and maintaining supply chains is reshaping logistics itself. As manufacturing shifts to new locations, integrated logistics providers are deciding where to build the infrastructure that tomorrow's trade will need. That is why the industry is seeing major investment in Africa and India.
For forwarders, these shifts open new trade lanes and new opportunities. The companies with reliable partners in emerging markets will be best positioned to follow the cargo wherever it goes next.
Wood sees a clear change in how the industry views disruption.
"When I speak with our customers and even prospective customers, there really is a sense of bring it on with the next disruption," said Wood. "Perhaps I'm being too optimistic, but COVID smacked us in the mouth, and we got back up and dealt with it. Liberation Day smacked us in the mouth, and we got back up, and we dealt with it. We are moving trade with disruption in the Middle East. This shows you how resilient the global economy has proven to be in light of all of this volatility."
The message for logistics professionals is clear. Disruption isn't going away. But with sharper intelligence, stronger partnerships, and a team-wide approach to risk, the industry has proven that it can take the hit and keep moving.